Earth Nature Treaty: Research Database

Research compilation for formal policy proposal targeting world leaders, UN officials, legal scholars, and environmental scientists

Executive summary: The case for permanent protection

The scientific consensus is unequivocal: protecting at least 30% of Earth by 2030, with an aspirational target of 50% (Half-Earth), is essential to prevent mass extinction. Current coverage – 17.6% of land and 8.4% of ocean – falls dramatically short. But proven models exist: the Antarctic Treaty has governed a continent for 65+ years through transparency and consensus; constitutional protections in Bhutan maintain 70% forest cover; and innovative financing mechanisms have already mobilized over $1.2 billion for conservation. Modern satellite and AI monitoring systems now detect violations with 99.4% accuracy, making enforcement technically feasible at planetary scale.

Scientific foundation

Half-Earth: The 50% solution

E.O. Wilson's Half-Earth concept establishes 50% protection as the threshold for preserving 85% of biodiversity. The species-area relationship follows a logarithmic curve: protecting 10% saves roughly 50% of species, but only 50% protection achieves 85% species preservation.

30by30: Current global commitment

The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, adopted December 19, 2022 by 196 countries at COP15, established Target 3: protect 30% of terrestrial, inland water, coastal and marine areas by 2030. The High Ambition Coalition for Nature and People now includes 117 member countries.

Current status (October 2024):

• Land protection: 17.6% (gap of 12.4 percentage points)
• Ocean protection: 8.4% (gap of 21.6 percentage points)
• Only 8.5% of land is both protected AND connected

Biodiversity crisis: The numbers

IPBES 2019 Global Assessment:

• 1 million species threatened with extinction
• 75% of terrestrial environments severely altered
• 85% of wetlands lost globally
• 73% average decline in wildlife populations

IUCN Red List 2024-2025:

• 46,337 species threatened out of 166,061 assessed (28%)
• 38% of world's tree species threatened
• Over 50% of bird species globally in decline

Extinction rate: Current rate is 100-1,000 times higher than natural background.

Financial imperative: IPBES 2024 assessment found that acting immediately could generate $10 trillion in business value by 2030. Delaying one decade doubles the costs.

Legal precedent: The Antarctic Treaty model

History and structure

The Antarctic Treaty, signed December 1, 1959, stands as the world's first successful arms control agreement during the Cold War. Originally signed by 12 nations, it now has 58 parties including 29 consultative parties with voting rights.

Key prohibitions:

• Article I: All military activities prohibited
• Article V: Nuclear explosions and radioactive waste disposal prohibited
• Madrid Protocol Article 7 (1998): Mineral resource extraction prohibited indefinitely

Why it works: Enforcement mechanisms

Inspection regime (Article VII):

• Any consultative party may designate observers with "complete freedom of access at any time to any or all areas"
• No advance notice required
• Implementation record: 11 on-site inspections in 2019-20

Article IV – The sovereignty "freeze": The treaty's most innovative provision neither recognizes nor renounces territorial claims, allowing Cold War rivals to cooperate without surrendering positions.

Transferable elements

• Sovereignty management through "freeze" mechanism
• Inspection regime with complete freedom of access
• Consensus building from small initial group
• Scientific priority over exploitation
• Advance prohibition preventing economic entrenchment

Economic models: Proven financing mechanisms

Costa Rica: The definitive success story

Program structure:

• Established 1997 (Forest Law 7575 of 1996)
• Primary funding: 3.5% tax on fossil fuel sales
• Payment rate: $64/hectare/year for forest protection

Results – Deforestation reversal:

• 1983: 21% forest cover (LOWEST)
• 1998: Deforestation completely stopped
• 2020s: Over 57% forest cover restored
• Saved: 1 million hectares of forest

Economic impact: Costa Rica became top per capita agricultural exporter in Latin America while protecting 25% of territory. Ecotourism generates $2.85 billion annually.

Blue bonds: Debt conversion at scale

Ecuador Galápagos Blue Bond (2023) – LARGEST DEAL:

• Debt converted: $1.628 billion → $656 million (60% reduction)
• Conservation funding: $323 million total over 18.5 years
• Endowment: $227 million target by 2041, providing $12 million/year in perpetuity

Other major deals:

• Gabon (2023): $500 million debt conversion
• El Salvador (2024): $1 billion – largest for watersheds
• Total portfolio: $1.2+ billion debt refinanced globally, $400+ million conservation funding

Potential scale: IIED analysis suggests $100 billion could be freed in 49 countries most at risk of debt default.

Conservation vs. extraction profitability

Peru Tambopata Rainforest:

• Ecotourism Net Present Value: $1,158/hectare
• Conclusion: Ecotourism outcompetes alternative uses including logging and agriculture

New York City Watershed:

• Conservation approach: Less than $1 billion
• Alternative infrastructure: $8-10 billion
• Savings: $7-9 billion by choosing conservation

Technological monitoring: Making enforcement possible

Satellite constellations: Global coverage

SENTINEL-2 (ESA/Copernicus):

• Revisit time: 5 days at equator with two satellites
• Resolution: 10m (visible/NIR bands)
• Swath width: 290 km

LANDSAT 8 & 9 (NASA/USGS):

• Revisit time: 8 days combined
• Resolution: 15m (panchromatic), 30m (multispectral)
• Heritage: Longest continuous Earth observation record (50+ years)

Google Earth Engine: Democratizing monitoring

Platform capabilities:

• Data volume: 70+ petabytes; 1+ petabyte added monthly
• Time series: 50 years of historical data
• Users: UN FAO, WWF, national governments, major universities

AI for biodiversity monitoring

SpeciesNet (Google/Wildlife Insights):

• Animal detection accuracy: 99.4%
• Species-level identification: 94.5% accuracy
• Training dataset: 65+ million camera trap images
• Species coverage: 2,000+ labels

Real-time deforestation detection

RADD ALERTS (Radar for Detecting Deforestation):

• Resolution: 10 meters
• Coverage frequency: Every 6-12 days
• Weather independence: Penetrates clouds, operates day/night
• Accuracy: 2% false positives, 5% false negatives

Proven violation detection

Marine Protected Areas Study (2025):

• SAR detected 75% more fishing vessels than AIS alone
• Up to 42% of strictly protected MPAs had zero vessel detections

Brazil – DETER System:

• 2004-2012: 75% decrease in Amazon forest loss
• Mechanism: Satellite alerts → targeted enforcement → fines

Constitutional protection: The permanence solution

Bhutan: Quantitative mandate in action

Constitutional provision:

• Article 5, Section 2(d) (2008): "A minimum of sixty percent of Bhutan's total land shall be maintained under forest cover for all time."
• Legal significance: First country to include quantitative environmental standard in constitution

Current compliance:

• Forest cover: 70.45-71% (exceeds mandate by 10-11 percentage points)
• Carbon status: Country is carbon negative

Ecuador: Rights of Nature enforcement

Constitutional adoption:

• Date enacted: September 28, 2008 (65% referendum support)
• Historic significance: First country to recognize Rights of Nature in constitution

Key articles:

• Article 71: "Nature has the right to integral respect for its existence and for the maintenance and regeneration of its life cycles. All persons can call upon public authorities to enforce the rights of nature."
• Article 72: "Nature has the right to be restored."

LOS CEDROS PROTECTED FOREST (2021) – LANDMARK CASE:

• Constitutional Court ruled mining violated rights of nature
• All mining authorizations revoked
• Mining operations ceased within one month
• Binding precedent for all of Ecuador

Global constitutional environmental protections

• 149 of 193 UN countries (77%) have constitutional environmental provisions
• 100+ countries: Constitutional right to healthy environment

Notable enforcement examples:

• Germany (2021): Federal Constitutional Court ordered government to revise Climate Protection Act
• Brazil (2022): Supreme Court recognized Paris Agreement as human rights treaty with "supranational" status – first country to do so

Why constitutional protections are permanent

1. Amendment difficulty:

• Constitutional amendments require supermajorities and referendums
• Statutes need only simple majority

2. Judicial enforcement:

• Courts can invalidate laws violating constitution
• Constitutional courts have enforcement power
• Citizens have standing to bring claims

3. Empirical evidence:

• Bhutan: Forest cover maintained above 60% for 30+ years; constitutional status made commitment irreversible
• Ecuador: Los Cedros decision revoked mining licenses – nearly impossible under statutory law alone

Synthesis: The treaty blueprint

Essential treaty components

Quantitative targets with constitutional backing:

• Minimum 30% protection by 2030 (binding)
• Aspirational 50% by 2050 (Half-Earth)
• Constitutional enshrinement at national level

Enforcement through transparency:

• Mandatory satellite monitoring
• Public data access through platforms like Google Earth Engine
• Mutual inspection rights (Antarctic Treaty model)
• Civil society standing to bring enforcement actions

Sustainable financing mechanisms:

• National PES programs with stable funding
• Debt-for-nature swap facilitation
• $200 billion annual mobilization by 2030
• $30 billion annual international transfers to developing countries

Indigenous rights recognition:

• Formal recognition of Indigenous and Community Conserved Areas
• Free prior informed consent
• Direct financing to Indigenous communities
• Land tenure security

Adaptive governance:

• Framework treaty with protocols
• Annual consultative meetings
• Five-year review cycles with scientific assessment

The permanence strategy

Constitutional environmental protections at the national level, combined with international treaty obligations and transparent satellite monitoring, create a triple-lock mechanism:

First lock – Constitutional supremacy: National constitutions establish quantitative targets. Amendment requires supermajorities and referendums. Courts can enforce against resistant governments.

Second lock – Treaty obligations: International agreement creates binding commitments with mutual inspection rights and dispute resolution mechanisms.

Third lock – Transparent monitoring: Public satellite data enables independent monitoring. Detection accuracy of 94.5-99.4% makes violations visible.

The moment for action

The tools exist. The financing mechanisms are proven. The legal models have succeeded. The monitoring technology is operational. The scientific consensus is clear. The economic case is compelling.

What remains is political will – the decision by world leaders to bind their nations and successors to permanent protection before the sixth mass extinction becomes irreversible.